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International Forecaster November, 2004 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster


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THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

NOVEMBER 2004 (#3) Vol. 8 No. 11-3

P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951

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US MARKETS

 

           If you believe George W. Bush and his neocons were arrogant during their first four years, wait until you see the second four years. There will be absolutely no checks and balances. Republicans solidly control Congress and the Supreme Court rubber-stamps neocon ideas. There are no checks and balances, this makes the next four years extremely dangerous. We see full steam ahead for Social Security reform or stock market investment of available funds that will increase our deficit by $250 billion a year. Energy reform is a major give-away to elitist oil interests. Tax reform could be constructive, we will see. We expect many more scandals, government, corporate and more from the securities and investment industry in general. George will watch the collapse of the American economy as debt devours our economy. When you have too big a majority in Washington, you have trouble, big trouble. Secrecy will be expanded far beyond anything seen in Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia. Spies will be everywhere. Iraq will become another Vietnam and chances are good that we will have a Selective Service draft. We will hear lots more about lack of patriotism and disloyalty to our leader who should be collecting garbage. Our journey will not be a pleasant one. Our President will continue to betray every constitutional principle he pretends to espouse. We believe the conservatives and liberals still just do not get it and they are still captive to elitist psywar.

 

 

            Our President has no idea how he will pay for his second term agenda as federal deficits run amok. There is no federal surplus of $5.6 billion like there was four years ago when he first took office. The President says he will see that the budget deficit is halved. Yet, the CBO says it now sees $2.3 trillion in accumulated deficits over the next ten years. We do not know about you, but we trust the veracity of the CBO. George is known for seldom telling the truth. That CBO estimated excludes the costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and any more adventures that George and the neocons can dream up, such as nuclear war. Paying for all this is impossible. Next, we will have tax reforms, which will in fact be tax increases. George says he will impose spending discipline on Congress and spur economic growth to boast tax revenue. That will not work because if Congress cuts spending the economy will slow down. If Mr. Bush tries to borrow the money, it would be very detrimental to our already staggering deficit.

 

            Then, George wants to create Social Security Savings Accounts. There is no money in Social Security so he would have to take the funds from current cash tax flow. Analysts have estimated the ten-year price tag at $2 trillion.

 

            Bush then wants to make 2001and 2003 tax cuts permanent because they expire in ten years. That will cost another $1 trillion.

 

            The cost of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars this year is $100 billion. We do not even have figures on his domestic war against terrorism. All we know is, it is tens of billions of dollars and we have not caught one terrorist yet.

 

            There is a limit to which foreign investors will go with Bush’s profligacy and we believe that limit was reached last August. The foreign inflow of funds should continue to diminish and that means the Fed will have to buy and monetize debt, which is highly and immediately inflationary.

 

            The passage of Arizona’s Proposition 200, requires proof of citizenship when seeking public benefits or when requesting to vote. Government employees are required to report suspected illegal immigrants seeking public benefits or when registering to vote. Now maybe the state can force the Federal Government to remove these people from our country and send them home. The changes are already visible. In one federal Head-Start program two children showed up instead of the twenty registered. The Federal Government then informed the parents you do not have to be citizens in the Head-Start program and they returned to the school. A big battle is shaping up between Arizona and the Federal Government. The citizens of the state want the one million illegals sent home, but the Federal Government is the enemy of American citizens. They want to do everything possible to keep subsidizing these felons.

 

            Sometimes if you pray and wish hard enough, good things happen. The US is preparing to destroy Afghanistan’s opium poppy crop by air next spring. The program will be modeled from the program in Colombia. Hundreds of private security contractors and pilots will be hired to spray herbicides from low flying aircraft. Production of opium, as we reported some time ago, was up 64% last year. The program begins in February or March and includes targeting drug barons. The risk is that the eradication program could spark rural rebellion, increase support for the Taliban and damage the environment. It, of course, impoverishes the country.

 

            The Specter Amendment was passed in the $373 billion spending Bill, which allows religious minorities from Iran to enter the US. That includes Bahais, Christians, Zoroastrians and 25,000 Jews. Could it be that we are allowing these people refugee status because we are going to invade Iran? We do not know, but it is a reasonable assumption. These refugees will all be immediately put on welfare and federal handouts of all kinds. If elderly, they are financed to live happily ever- after off our taxes. We worked a lifetime for Social Security and these people waltz in and absorb the benefits. Since the Lautenberg Amendment was adapted fifteen years ago, 400,000 Jews from the former Soviet Union entered the country with the same overall benefits, plus many received funding to start businesses. Today, most of the recipients are non-Jews. A possible 1.4 million non-Jewish refugees could take advantage of the program.

 

The Dow is up because Wall Street believes they will be sucking in all that Social Security money. A government sanctioned give-away to Wall Street. It is not reality yet, and all Democrats and many Republicans vote against it. We are on record of opposing the idea. How will they make up the $250 billion a year they will lose in tax receipts? Where will the money come from? That is right, they will borrow it. Are we not in enough trouble already? How will government fund the $82 trillion in entitlement funds? This idea will push us straight into bankruptcy.

 

            Richard Walker, SEC Enforcement Chief says, “If we had nothing else to do, the accounting investigations alone could keep us busy for the next five to ten years.” What a sad commentary on American business.

 

The battle for Fallujah rages. As of next month, 60 years ago, the German Wehrmarcht and the SS reduced Stalingrad to rubble and took the city; we’d say similar situations. The Germans were driven out. What will be the fate of our soldiers and Marines in this terrible battle? That did not have to happen. What will be the attitude of the Muslin fighters? Will they give up or will they gain new strength? After much thought, we believe, the insurgents will not give up and the coming battles will be even fiercer. As far as the Muslims are concerned, they have replaced one enemy with another. The big winner here is Iran. Their enemies, the Taliban and Saddam, no longer are a threat. They have major technical and military support from Russia and China and China is about to begin a $200 billion oil and gas project. Iran has a very well educated population, a strong middle class, respect for authority and an effective military. They also have very effective intelligence and counter intelligence operations.

 

            We believe that backing will be 28%. We expect a revision to imposts and tariffs, and many years will be spent by every country working out their monetary and fiscal problems. In the meantime, to ask all central banks not to diversify their holdings is impossible. The risk of dollar depreciation grows daily. We expect another 30% drop in the dollar. Another 30% drop after already absorbing a 30% drop, will be very painful for all lenders to the US, particularly China, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. As their central banks are holding $2.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves out of a total of $3.4 trillion, a further 30% correction is a further loss of $660 billion. As we see it, Asia has already started to bail out. The world will follow. The flipside is $1,500.00 gold and $50.00 silver. Load up on gold and silver coins and stocks. Fortunes will be made.

 

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GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

 

We are getting that warm glow again. The glow we got in 1976 when gold began its last famous run to $850.00 an ounce. Inflation is again causing gold to go higher, but it is not the main factor yet - it will be later. The reason now is fiscal and current account deficits and a falling dollar. Gold may be up 72% over the past 42 months, but it is still 50% from its all-time high. An additional positive aspect for gold is the pending approval by the SEC of the Gold Exchange Traded Fund, which is similar to such other funds trading in London and Australia. It provides a direct exposure to the gold price without going to the futures market, or buying physical gold, coins or shares. It is very convenient for funds and institutional buyers. These buyers will now be able to access a market not available to them in the past. That will mean gold will be purchased that was not purchased previously. We believe the dollar is going lower, some 30% lower, and we also believe that dollar problem is going to persist for several years. It may well be accompanied by higher inflation and perhaps mega-inflation. The fundamentals are all in place, as gold production declines and reserves decline as well.

 

As the euro, Swiss franc and other currencies moved higher against the dollar, so has gold. Gold now has again become the premier currency. The dollar market is now so large that no central bank or groups of banks can for long influence its direction. The same has come true in the gold market where physical buying has overwhelmed official selling. Do not forget the euro was issued at $0.97, it fell to $0.8194 it is now $1.295. That is an almost $0.50 move from the bottom of the euros range. Percentage wise gold has not moved nearly as much, and if it is in fact the world’s premium currency, it should be flying from this level. You must also remember once the dollar goes to where it’s going, gold will still stay firm or go higher as gold is the currency. Once the dollar finishes correcting, will it still be the world’s reserve currency?

 

            The war in Iraq and other deficit spending are draining the US of its wealth. This guerilla war could go on for years. We could win the battles and lose the war. The implications here are far worse than Vietnam. Four more years of this fighting and any other military actions could financially destroy America. We have the government and leaders that we deserve and that is not a good thing.

 

            The geniuses at Franklin Resources, which owned 11% of Sons of Gwalia, or 20.2 million shares, made their last purchase on 10/13/04 and sold 5.7 million shares off market for an undisclosed same on 10/25/04, although the stock had been suspended from trading in 8/30/04. They lost over $50 million. How is that for in competency? They should not have been buying hedged producers in the first place.

 

            The mining industry is facing inflating energy and construction costs, and companies are attempting, where they can, to increase production that is US dollar denominated. This pursuit has serious consequences for the growth of new gold production in a short period of time, with very few projects due to come on stream in the near term. A company like Barrick Gold said annual production is forecast to rise to a peak of 3.5 million ounces in 2006, compared with two million ounces in 2004 and 2005, but the level will then drop dramatically to one million ounces in 2007. For further new production seven to ten years is realistic. Barrick’s Peruvian production has been falling consistently for four months. The mines ministry said Barrick’s Pierina production fell 67%, due to lower grades. Of course, Barrick has been high-grading for years. Repeatedly we have said, “sell Barrick”, we hope you are listening. This is a company in serious trouble.

 

Silver contracts set new records with open interest hovering near 125,000 ounces, as silver Comex warehouse stocks dropped to a new low of 103,000,000 ounces.

 

            Yesterday was the Diwali Festival in India. The Indian wedding season still has two months to run; business and farming are prospering, so you can expect record gold purchases for doweries.

 

            There has been persistent gold buying by a large European bank, which has all the earmarks of a derivative deal gone toxic.

 

            The amount of non-monetary gold exported from the US in September was worth $524 million versus $326 million in August.

 

            Dubai has dubbed itself the “City of Gold”, and India, the world’s largest consumer of gold, are forming a Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange, which will go into operation in late 2005.

 

            Barrick Gold will issue $750 million in debt securities to cover its losses on its gold hedge positions. At $440.00 an ounce, they have broken their contracts, unless they get cash, and that is what they are doing. They are currently offside over $2 billion.

 

 

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